The Cultural Foundations of State Legitimacy: Kinship Intensity and Institutional Mismatch. (2026) [Draft]
Abstract: This paper proposes that the failure of institutional transplants may stem from an 'institutional mismatch' between rigid formal rules and informal norms. Leveraging a spatial RD across partitioned ethnic homelands, I find that historical kinship intensity impedes development only under Civil Law. This institutional mismatch reduces local economic activity by 11% and aggregate GDP by 4%. Using geocoded microdata, I provide evidence that under Civil Law, high-kinship groups view the state as illegitimate, amounting to a deficit in institutional trust equivalent to half the aggregate variation across Sub-Saharan countries. Applying NLP to a novel corpus of colonial court cases, I show that Common Law can absorb customary norms, mitigating these costs. To address colonial strategy as an alternative explanation, I exploit a real-time shock in institutional mismatch during the 2016 Anglophone Crisis in Cameroon. The sudden imposition of Civil Law reduced economic activity four times as much in high-kinship communities. Institutional efficacy may depend on aligning formal policies with local moral psychology.
Champagne Spillovers: Geographical Indications and Regional Economic Development. Journal of Wine Economics (forthcoming)
Interest rate risk exposures and hedging of euro area banks’ banking books. Financial Stability Review (2022)
(with B. Klaus, F. Lenoci and C. Pancaro) [Media: ECB Speech]
Corporations as the State: Concessions, Urbanization, and Long-Run Development in the Copperbelt. African Economic History Network Working Paper No. 85 (2025) [Current Draft]
Rational Superstition: Environmental Volatility and the Origins of Magical Beliefs. (2026) [Draft]
[Slides]
The Digital Money Trilemma: Sovereignty, Stability, and Integration in Cross-Border CBDCs. Digitalisation towards Sustainable Development – Comparative perspectives from emerging economies and Europe, Routledge (forthcoming)
(eds. S. Lucatello and W. Reiners) [Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant: PRODIGEES]
Rooted in Place: Staple Crops, Trade, and Structural Transformation
(with C. Hamilton)
The Dispossessed: Large-Scale Land Acquisitions, Elite Capture, and Dissent in Africa
Kinship Structure and Domestic Violence: Evidence from West Sumatra
rddid. A Stata package to estimate Difference-in-Discontinuities. (2026) [GitHub Repository]
(Install: ssc install rddid) [Documentation]